Bali finale - postponed.

Quote of the Day: “I feel like a swiss clock.”
-UN Climate Chief, Yvo de Boer commenting on the ups and downs of negotiating

When I woke up this morning, I had a funny feeling, replaying in my head RP, IPCC chairman’s presentation to the plenary on Wednesday. The presentation was pretty graphic and had eerie background music, as it showed smokestacks billowing CO2 into the air, and icebergs melting. I had dreamt that I was watching a small group of people watching a video of IPCC Chairman, Rajendra Pachauri’s presentation sometime in the future in which the planet had reaped the worst predictions made by the IPCC, with sea rises, disease, conflicts, and droughts bringing civilization back to a less populous, simpler form. I felt their sense of puzzlement for how we could have let this happen.

Today was the final day to hash everything out here in Bali, but an announcement has just been made that the finale will be postponed until 8am Bali time. I was hoping that we would just get it over with tonight or even better at dawn, for the dawn of a new protocol.

The main numbers at issue are:
1. 25-40 per cent reductions by rich countries by 1990 (rumour is that this was just sacrificed by the EU)
2. Stop the increase in greenhouse gases in next 10-15 years
3. 50 per cent global greenhouse gas reductions by 2050 from 2000 base year

As long as 2 and 3 make it into final text, Bali can be considered a victory as the level of ambition that UN Chief Yvo de Boer wanted will be mostly there--but it will mean a rough and tumble 2-year negotiating period about who does what between Bali and the climate talks scheduled to take place in Copenhagen in 2009.

Of the three points above, I think the 25-40 per cent reduction by rich countries from 1990 is the easiest one to do without for two reasons: one is that the base year of 1990 is a long time ago, and will be a huge sticking point. It would be better to use 2000 as a base year, and a narrower target range if the goal is to get the US on board. Two, if the developed countries say we will do this no matter what, it will build good will, but it will also take negotiating power away that I think will be necessary to bring in the big industrializing countries.

Tidbits of today:
Mayor Mike Bloomberg: ruled out running as VP on Gore-Bloomberg ticket because “I’m too old to work for someone else.”

Munir Akram, Pakistani envoy to the UN and chairman of the G77 said that rich nations were threatening poor nations with trade sanctions if they did not agree to absolute caps. When asked what developing countries could agree to, he said: “voluntary measures at a national level.” I am not sure how well that will work.