Sunday, December 16, 2007

"The world is watching, let us not let them down."

What an emotional rollercoaster today was, but in the end the Berlin Wall of climate change separating rich and poor countries was knocked down and the world’s superpower finally and incredibly, in what is likely the most dramatic public foreign policy shift in the nation’s history, stepped into line with the international community’s long march to reconciling man and climate.

After the crisis from the first morning session in which it appeared the G-77 plus China was about to derail the whole two weeks of talks, the Indonesian Environment Minister, Yvo de Boer, the Secretary General of the UN and the President of Indonesia took the podium. The Environment Minister set the tone with a well-prepared heartfelt speech delivered in a kind and focused rather than his disconsolate manner on display at the morning portion of the meeting. The Minister said we are 80-90 per cent there, and then in a huge diplomatic tipping of the hat to China who had expressed frustration at the lack of coordination between Indonesia’s foreign and environment ministers, the physically small man showed how big he actually was, apologizing in front of his President for his chairmanship: “That was not without its faults, and I do apologize for treading on your sensibilities.” He then added, the concurrent meetings this morning was “due to genuine misunderstanding, I beg your understanding and hope to proceed better. Although I am not too young, I am not too old to learn something.”

The Indonesian President and Secretary General then delivered electrifying speeches that both hit me emotionally. The President said, “I have come here at this hour to make a special plea to you…We must make the last mile of this marathon, the most difficult mile. The worst thing is for our human race and planet to crumble because we cannot find the right wording. What we do on this day will have an impact for decades to come.” He closed, “The world is watching, let us not let them down.”

The Secretary General began on a sober note, saying: “I’m disappointed at the level of progress. You have accomplished much in the past few days. But now the hour is late. It’s time to decide. You have in your hands the ability to deliver a successful outcome to the world. The scientific realities affecting our planet demand the highest level of ambition. A few days ago, I said we were at a crossroads: one path leads to a new comprehensive climate change agreement, the other leads to a betrayal of our planet and our children. You are about to take the first step down one of these paths. I hope you take the right path.”

Not satisfied with the Environment Minister’s apology, China asked the Secretariat to explain what had happened. Yvo de Boer turned on his microphone to answer and began to speak before hiding his head in his hands. He shook his head, which was red, in the way that someone with deep dignity reacts when their integrity is attacked. He finally sputtered out, choking back tears naked with emotion: "The Secretariat was not aware there was a meeting taking place,” before swiftly exiting the room.

The room gave him a standing ovation and the Chinese let it rest.

India, Portugal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Costa Rica, Philippines, Mauritius, and Saudi Arabia raised mostly minor points. Then the main event: Paula Dobriansky, US Undersecretary of Global Affairs, took the floor. She said that she had been heartened with the statements from large developing countries on their willingness to take action on climate change but that she was disappointed that this sentiment was not reflected in an outcome here, before dropping a bomb that kicked off almost unanimous boos and cat calls from the usually staid diplomats: "We cannot accept this text because it represents a significant change in the balance that many of us have worked together for in the past week.”

With the agreement seemingly scuttled, Japan took the floor next, and with his own translator to ensure that no diplomatic niceties of his intervention was lost on the regular UN translator, he supported some of the US sentiment but made it clear that an agreement would be reached: “The President mentioned that climate change is a common responsibility. Japan is 100 per cent in agreement with that statement. We have the expectation and hope that this agreement will make it possible for major emitters to discuss the issue and aim for results. Japan will do its utmost to lead this conference to success.”

South Africa then took the floor: “The science is clear. It is recognized by most of us. The reference by the United States to developing countries not accepting full responsibility is most unwelcome and without any basis. As a matter of fact, we are willing to commit ourselves to measurable, reportable and verifiable mitigation action. We are also willing to agree to [the language around commitments by developed countries] which admittedly we would liked to have seen stronger commitment. We request the US to reconsider.” Thunderous applause.

Brazil then intervened: “We are ready to do measurable, reportable and verifiable mitigation actions, and we ask that those countries with the historical responsibility do the same.”

Jamaica was to speak next, but they didn’t have much to say: “It’s a mistake, button presser.”

Tuvalu who was introduced as Turkmenistan then appealed to delegates: "If you are not comfortable enough to support the text, instead of blocking consensus, please just register your interpretation of it to be included in the report."

Chile echoed Tuvalu: “If delegates have a problem with text, take Tuvalu’s suggestion. Don’t block consensus.”

Uganda appealed to the US to agree to the text noting that the US’ strongest views had been considered. “We would like to beg them that they do accept our position.”

Tanzania spoke next. “I have a superpower on my right (US) and an economic power on my left. I’m almost squeezed. The neighbour to my right has the power to block progress in their hands. The power to wreck progress. Let’s leave Bali having made a footprint for future generations so we can say we were in Bali and we did something great here.”

The next speaker, Papua New Guinea, marked the tipping point, saying to the US in the most direct terms: “If you are not willing to lead, then get out of the way. We want you to lead, we ask you to lead. If you are not willing to lead, leave it to the rest of us. Please get out of the way.” The room shook.

A mere 25 minutes had passed since the US had rejected the agreement. Paula Dobriansky from the US took the floor once again, showing some of the mettle of her famous Ukrainian Patriot father Lev Dobriansky. She said: “We have listened. We are heartened by expressions of firm commitments, especially the major economies. We all will act together. We will go forward and join consensus.” Awe-struck applause.

I could have given Paula a hug right there.

Alden Meyer of the Union of Concerned Scientists and battle-hardened climate warrior who was standing near the US delegation said to me: “that’s one hell of a shift.”

China as well as a bevy of countries responded with happy welcome, though China’s welcome was a little measured. “Most importantly, we can welcome the US on board, who although is not in the seat of the driver, at last we can begin on our march.”

With that the world’s superpower averted what would have been a disaster in climate governance. Now the long march to finding a way to reconcile billions of people with our precarious climate balance begins at last with the US and big developing countries on board.

Musical chairs.

In the morning after the evening in which a climate bargain was meant to be hammered out, all hell is breaking loose. It started a little after 8 am when the text that was meant to be a fait accompli came out. I knew there was trouble when I saw James Connaughton, Chairman of the US President’s Council of Environment Quality. He was quite agitated to the point where his bald head was beet red. He was grabbing delegates as they walked by and I followed him down the hall with a Japanese colleague he was speaking with. All I could make out was mitigation, or some reference to it in the text he was appalled about. Then they gathered with Japan, Australia (Penny Wong), and Minister Baird, who arrived a little after the meeting got underway (8.21am) in the Tulip Room of the Westin Hotel. As they exited the meeting room, Connaghton pigeon holed Baird to make a point. I could not hear what he said, but Baird replied “2006,” which is Canada’s current base year for measuring GHG reductions.

Back in the main plenary, there were two false starts, as the G-77 was meeting in another room with Indonesia’s foreign minister hammering over text that was changed last night without their input. This made the Chinese angry. A junior person in the delegation raised an objection about concurrent meetings taking place. The Indonesian Environment Minister who is supposed to be the President of the meeting said he would ask the Foreign Minister to wrap things up and they would convene in a few minutes, to which the Chinese delegate said: "No, not in a few minutes. Until they are done.” The Chinese senior negotiator came back in the room and in English (which they never speak in the plenary), said: "The G-77 is meeting with the Foreign Minister of the Indonesian Government. I would like to seek clarification from the Secretariat why these meetings are going on concurrently. I think the Secretariat did this intentionally. I would like to ask for an apology from the Secretariat." Yvo de Boer, UN Executive Secretary could be overheard: “Yes, now, I’m offended.” Then the Environment Minister adjourned the meeting.

The problem here is that the meeting now has two chairs. The official one, who is nice but viewed as a bit weak and the foreign minister who was brought in the second day of high level meetings and is effectively running the show—though the two ministers are clearly not on the same page at all times.

I walked over to the Chinese delegation to listen in on a conversation between the German Environment Minister and the Chinese lead negotiator. The junior Chinese delegate was waving his fingers and yelling “Twice, twice,” referring to the fact that the plenary meeting had been convened twice while the G-77 was meeting outside with the Foreign Minister.

The senior Chinese negotiator accused the German Environment Minister of colluding with the US to make the language tougher for the G-77 and China. The German Minister took exception to this and said no way. The EU met this morning at 7am and there was no discussion of this nor meeting with the US. China shot back saying, "Yes maybe, but maybe someone other than you met with them." The German was adamant that this did not happen, and then he said some pretty powerful things: If this fails, the UN fails, and that is a big victory for the US. If we dig our heels in now, the US wins. They can go back and say: “Look, the UN can’t get anything done. They are so stupid. Then they win. We lose.” The German Minister continued: "I have to go on a TV interview tomorrow before a national audience, and what am I going to tell them?” The Chinese delegate said he agreed, but that he couldn’t understand how the same mistake was made twice. Germany replied that the reason was simple: there are two chairs of the meeting and they are not talking to each other. The German Minister then said, “I’m a friend of China. I didn’t have the Dalai Lama in my office.” This seemed to build some rapport. Then the Chinese said something about the quality of German technology. The German Minister said his riding was close to Siemans headquarters and he had had the honour of having Jiang Zemin visit his home.

The German Minister then said: "Next time we need to work more closely and I am sure we will have only one chair to deal with."

John Baird and Eric Richer both intercepted me on my way out to underline that this was not Canada’s fault.

I then went and slipped a note to Yvo saying that the Chinese didn’t mean to insult him, it was just that their one-party country made it difficult for them to understand how the Indonesian government could be so uncoordinated, and suggested that it would go some way if he could get the Secretary General to apologize for the unintentional process overlap.

That’s all for now.