Baird goes big on global target and Yvo reveals his secret to Bali success

Some big news today. The first big newsmaker of the day was Yvo De Boer; the UN chief finally clarified what success would mean in Bali, beyond getting a mandate to negotiate further negotiations that is. Bali success will be getting agreement on an overall global target---rather than specific national targets--for emissions reductions consistent with the IPCC recommendations to avoid dangerous climate change. This he said would then guide and the ambition of negotiations going forward to the UN Climate conference in Copenhagen in 2009, when a deal must be hammered out by.

Shortly after this, I asked Minister Baird to clarify if Canada would support a global target consistent with Yvo’s definition of success. He said that Canada would be willing to support a 40 per cent global emissions reduction by 2020 from a 2000 base year. He also mentioned the words common but differentiated responsibility in the same sentence, something that the government was staying away from before. This is huge and at least twice as ambitious as Canada’s current domestic plan. Of course anyone can promise a target. Just ask Jean Chrétien. The hard part is to do the actual implementation, annual updates while setting regular milestones so progress can be regularly evaluated and carbon cycles can be better aligned with political cycles.

Somebody asked Baird about base years. He said that the base years were political; pointing out that he lost 50 pounds in 1996, so 1995 would be a great base year for him.

Negotiations update: There are two lines in the negotiating text being hotly debated at the moment. One references 25-40 per cent cuts by rich nations by 2020 from 1990 base year. The other references 50 per cent global emissions reductions by 2050 from 200 base year. If they are separated Canada, Australia and Japan (part of the quixotic quartet along with the US) will almost certainly support the global target of 50 by 2050, which would then allow the ensuing 2 years to hammer out the mechanism for sharing this responsibility and leave the US isolated until a new President can come on board. The trouble is developing countries will find this difficult to swallow unless it is accompanies by a substantial commitment (say annual $100 billion of funds) from rich nations to finance part of the incremental costs of mitigation including forest preservation and the crucial investments to be made to prepare for adapting to the climate change that would come no matter what we because of the billions of tonnes of GHGs the rich world has already put into he atmosphere. Those are the seeds around which a grand compact between the rich and developing world could be agreed upon.

Tidbits: Stephane Dion said today that the specter of environmental protectionism (which would be legitimate in many case) requires that the “WTO become experts on climate change.”

Tomorrow: Minister Baird and Al Gore will make presentations to the plenary session. It would be pretty cool if our Minister could upstage the Goreacle, but that would involve a substantially bold departure from what is expected.

Who’s Hot?
John Baird for laying down the gauntlet and saying Canada would support and 40 per cent global emissions reduction by 2020 from a 2000 base year

Australian PM Kevin Rudd for admitting that defeating climate change “would not be easy,” in contrast to IPCC chairman’s entreaty that it would be easy as delaying growth by one year.

Yvo de Boer for clariying what Bali success would be (an ambitious global emissions target)

Stephane Dion for not taking potshots at the current government, even when baited in the

Who’s Not
The US for standing in the way of a global greenhouse gas emissions target because it “may predetermine the outcome,” (That’s the point guys—we are trying to predetermine climate change jeopardizing our plant and human security)

Canadian delegation for calling police on your protesters outside Canadian tent

The Daily Telegraph correspondent for whining to UN media man John Hay for not being called on to ask the Secretary General a question. He was wearing a pink shirt, but if he really wants to ask a question he should sit in the centre like Corporate Knights’ Felix Von Geyer, with a pinstripe suit and hand erected high into the air.